National Management Group - Positive signs in equine influenza response
Positive signs in equine influenza response
The National Management Group (NMG) overseeing the national response to equine influenza has reassessed progress and believes there are positive signs control measures are working.
In considering the response to date, NMG re-confirmed a strategy of containment and eradication of the disease. Achievement of eradication continues to require strict biosecurity measures including adherence to movement controls where these are in place.
While the number of infected premises as expected has increased, NMG emphasised the effectiveness of the response in containing the disease to locations in Queensland and NSW since the end of August.
Vaccination buffers around areas of high disease concentration are proving highly effective and there are indications the disease is "burning out" reasonably quickly in these zones.
The restriction of the disease to limited places is allowing the freeing up of horse activities where this is consistent with the response's risk management principles and this in turn is allowing events such as the spring carnival in Victoria to proceed including the running of the Melbourne Cup yesterday.
Under industry/government agreed cost-sharing agreements for emergency animal disease responses including equine influenza, the control and eradication costs are capped at 1 per cent of the gross value of production (GVP) of that particular sector unless an alternative upper limit is agreed.
NMG noted that horse flu response costs had now exceeded $36 million, passing the previously agreed GVP limit. It agreed to continue the response and will hold further discussions this week to seek the agreement of all parties including horse industries to a revised upper limit.
In terms of an analysis of the response costs compared with the costs of living with the disease, NMG considered a Report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Report Summary attached) and accepted the current strategy to eradicate the disease remains beneficial in economic terms.
NMG also noted that the latest shipment of vaccine is progressively being rolled-out. The Australian Government has arrangements to underwrite up to 750,000 doses with current orders totalling 525,000 doses to be delivered progressively by February.
NMG discussed the preferred vaccine for equine influenza and agreed that the currently used live recombinant vaccine as approved for emergency use by OGTR, APVMA and AQIS, remains the preferred vaccine as it stimulates an earlier immune response than other vaccines that were considered.
In addition, 'ProteqFlu' allows for testing to distinguish between infected and vaccinated animals whereas use of alternative vaccines will complicate the ability to demonstrate freedom from the disease and potentially undermine the ability to move horses from infected to non-infected areas and for other purposes.
The priority for vaccine remains use in buffer zones as well as high risk horses in "red" and "purple" control zones.
Agriculture Ministers were briefed by NMG on the current state of play including response priorities, vaccine use, costs, and projections.
NMG is comprised of the Chief Executive Officers of the Commonwealth and State/Territory departments of agriculture/primary industries across Australia and also the heads of the peak bodies representing the horse industry. It is chaired by the Secretary of the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Dr Conall O'Connell.
Contacts: Australian Chief Veterinary Officer (A/g), Dr Bob Biddle (02)
Chief Executive, Australian Racing Board, Andrew Harding (0417) 043 233
President, Australian Horse Industry Council, Dr Barry Smyth (0417) 549 189
Chief Executive, Australian Harness Racing Council, Rod Pollock (03) 9867 8033
Scenario cost analysis for equine influenza
Following the outbreak of equine influenza (EI) in Australia, the Consultative Committee on Emergency Animal Disease (CCEAD) agreed to the establishment of a Working Group to examine the relative costs of managing the outbreak of EI in Australia. The Working Group commenced its work on the 3rd of September 2007.
The Working Group examined the relative costs of managing EI in Australia under two scenarios:
o An endemic scenario, a program of widespread and ongoing annual vaccination; and
o An eradication scenario, where the disease is contained and eradicated in New South Wales and Queensland, through movement restrictions on horses and horse related material over the period of eradication.
The analysis of these scenarios is undertaken for a 20 year time frame and under varying probabilities of successfully eradicating EI, and EI reoccurring in Australia.
The estimates produced by the Working Group are for a base case where the decision maker was comparing the two scenarios in late October 2007. A decision made at that time to continue on with the eradication program would have a lower cost than a decision to abandon containment and switch to an endemic scenario with vaccination, if the containment program was to remain in place up to early March 2008.
This conclusion was based on an assumption that the decision maker was confident that the eradication of EI would be successful by early March 2008. Under an alternative assumption of less certainty regarding eradication, the cost of the eradication scenario increases, reducing its cost advantage compared with the endemic scenario.
Sensitivity analyses were also undertaken from the perspective of making a decision in late October 2007. The results indicate that:
o Reducing the probability of future outbreaks of EI in the eradication scenario reduces the relative cost advantage of the eradication scenario in relation to the endemic scenario.
o Increasing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions increases the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.
o Reducing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions lowers the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.
o A lower cost of vaccines in the endemic scenario increases the cost advantage of the endemic scenario in relation to the eradication scenario
The National Management Group (NMG) overseeing the national response to equine influenza has reassessed progress and believes there are positive signs control measures are working.
In considering the response to date, NMG re-confirmed a strategy of containment and eradication of the disease. Achievement of eradication continues to require strict biosecurity measures including adherence to movement controls where these are in place.
While the number of infected premises as expected has increased, NMG emphasised the effectiveness of the response in containing the disease to locations in Queensland and NSW since the end of August.
Vaccination buffers around areas of high disease concentration are proving highly effective and there are indications the disease is "burning out" reasonably quickly in these zones.
The restriction of the disease to limited places is allowing the freeing up of horse activities where this is consistent with the response's risk management principles and this in turn is allowing events such as the spring carnival in Victoria to proceed including the running of the Melbourne Cup yesterday.
Under industry/government agreed cost-sharing agreements for emergency animal disease responses including equine influenza, the control and eradication costs are capped at 1 per cent of the gross value of production (GVP) of that particular sector unless an alternative upper limit is agreed.
NMG noted that horse flu response costs had now exceeded $36 million, passing the previously agreed GVP limit. It agreed to continue the response and will hold further discussions this week to seek the agreement of all parties including horse industries to a revised upper limit.
In terms of an analysis of the response costs compared with the costs of living with the disease, NMG considered a Report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Report Summary attached) and accepted the current strategy to eradicate the disease remains beneficial in economic terms.
NMG also noted that the latest shipment of vaccine is progressively being rolled-out. The Australian Government has arrangements to underwrite up to 750,000 doses with current orders totalling 525,000 doses to be delivered progressively by February.
NMG discussed the preferred vaccine for equine influenza and agreed that the currently used live recombinant vaccine as approved for emergency use by OGTR, APVMA and AQIS, remains the preferred vaccine as it stimulates an earlier immune response than other vaccines that were considered.
In addition, 'ProteqFlu' allows for testing to distinguish between infected and vaccinated animals whereas use of alternative vaccines will complicate the ability to demonstrate freedom from the disease and potentially undermine the ability to move horses from infected to non-infected areas and for other purposes.
The priority for vaccine remains use in buffer zones as well as high risk horses in "red" and "purple" control zones.
Agriculture Ministers were briefed by NMG on the current state of play including response priorities, vaccine use, costs, and projections.
NMG is comprised of the Chief Executive Officers of the Commonwealth and State/Territory departments of agriculture/primary industries across Australia and also the heads of the peak bodies representing the horse industry. It is chaired by the Secretary of the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Dr Conall O'Connell.
Contacts: Australian Chief Veterinary Officer (A/g), Dr Bob Biddle (02)
Chief Executive, Australian Racing Board, Andrew Harding (0417) 043 233
President, Australian Horse Industry Council, Dr Barry Smyth (0417) 549 189
Chief Executive, Australian Harness Racing Council, Rod Pollock (03) 9867 8033
Scenario cost analysis for equine influenza
Following the outbreak of equine influenza (EI) in Australia, the Consultative Committee on Emergency Animal Disease (CCEAD) agreed to the establishment of a Working Group to examine the relative costs of managing the outbreak of EI in Australia. The Working Group commenced its work on the 3rd of September 2007.
The Working Group examined the relative costs of managing EI in Australia under two scenarios:
o An endemic scenario, a program of widespread and ongoing annual vaccination; and
o An eradication scenario, where the disease is contained and eradicated in New South Wales and Queensland, through movement restrictions on horses and horse related material over the period of eradication.
The analysis of these scenarios is undertaken for a 20 year time frame and under varying probabilities of successfully eradicating EI, and EI reoccurring in Australia.
The estimates produced by the Working Group are for a base case where the decision maker was comparing the two scenarios in late October 2007. A decision made at that time to continue on with the eradication program would have a lower cost than a decision to abandon containment and switch to an endemic scenario with vaccination, if the containment program was to remain in place up to early March 2008.
This conclusion was based on an assumption that the decision maker was confident that the eradication of EI would be successful by early March 2008. Under an alternative assumption of less certainty regarding eradication, the cost of the eradication scenario increases, reducing its cost advantage compared with the endemic scenario.
Sensitivity analyses were also undertaken from the perspective of making a decision in late October 2007. The results indicate that:
o Reducing the probability of future outbreaks of EI in the eradication scenario reduces the relative cost advantage of the eradication scenario in relation to the endemic scenario.
o Increasing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions increases the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.
o Reducing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions lowers the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.
o A lower cost of vaccines in the endemic scenario increases the cost advantage of the endemic scenario in relation to the eradication scenario
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