An Opportunity Missed.

Clearly a great many people are concerned with and affected by the current and unprecedented epidemic of Equine Influenza. As we know, an enormous number of people are suffering. Therefore it was rather surprising, not to say disappointing, that despite being advertised for some time on the EFA Victoria website, there was such a small turn up to the EI information talk given by Dr Roger Paskin, prior to the Victorian EFA AGM on the 30th October. Dr Paskin is the Principal Veterinary Officer (Epidemiology) CVO Unit, Department of Primary Industries. Dr Paskin’s talk was informative, interesting and well presented and it is a pity only just over 20 people heard it. The next time someone asks what does the EFA do for us, think of this opportunity missed.

At the outset Dr Paskin did point out that he was an epidemiologist, not an economist or a politician. His outlook was entirely optimistic, declaring that due to the great efforts of all concerned, “we can now begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel”. Graphs were used to demonstrate the course of the epidemic in both NSW and Queensland, with a predicted plateauing out and forecast drop in Infected Premises and as a consequence infected horses. Dr Paskin explained that early in the epidemic, one IP would generate 2.5 Ips in a five day incubation period and now that infection rate had dropped to 0.8-0.9. This trend indicating the virus was fizzling out. “A property does not normally stay infected for more than a few weeks. What we are looking at now is roughly 2,500 IP and 25,000 infected horses, in a population of one million horses. Some areas like Narrabri are still unstable, but at places like Tamworth the virus is burning out, and in the Sydney basin, it is almost gone. Despite the hardship, people have been playing the game well and it is crucial to the control and eradication of the virus that they do not loose their momentum. The next few weeks will be very important and we will see a big change in that time, but people must remain vigilant. Optimistically I think the virus will be gone in NSW by Christmas. If I were to be pessimistic, it will be over in January or February. If it all goes well in Queensland, it will be over by mid December. The sun and the heat of summer will help to kill the virus, but people must be sensible”.

Maps were shown of the infected areas dotted over the countryside by the movement of horses early on. That these areas had for the most part been contained was according to Dr Paskin a successful and pleasing outcome. “You will not recognise the maps in January, but for the controls to continue working, everyone must continue to play ball”. Dr Paskin explained that from an epidemiologist’s point of view the first plan to let the virus run its course and burn out was the most sensible way to handle the disease, as a horse that has had the virus is safe from that strain for at least 12 months. However, the social, economic and political consequences of that were not acceptable. “Too many people were going to be out of business for a long time as a consequence”. Accordingly coloured zoning from free to no movement was established and limited ring vaccination was brought in, although this does add to the epidemiologist’s burden. “For us the Purple Zone is a nightmare as you have vaccinated horses, sick horses and recovered horses. This zone was established for economical and not bio-security reasons. It is vital that we know exactly where all the vaccinated horses are, as they have the potential to shed the virus without showing symptoms. Managing the Purple Zone is like unscrambling eggs.” After the 31st October there will be no movement in or out of the Purple Zone for the foreseeable future and all horses within the zone monitored. Interestingly we discovered that microchiping was not mandatory. De Paskin stated that the good freeze branding on Standardbreds was identification enough. It would follow that all horses branded and registered could be accordingly identified. Whatever happens we will all have to be more accountable.

The third plan discussed was to declare EI endemic and vaccinate. Dr Paskin echoed the already well know objections to this, namely the extra cost involved, incorporating the cost of both vaccination and testing. Also the vaccination/passport system then necessary would be an extra burden. The opposition to vaccination would put an extra economic burden on the horse owner. He explained that because it was not possible to vaccinate the entire horse population, a policy of vaccination, whether mandatory or voluntary would result in occasional EI outbreaks, as experienced in Europe and North America. Also any vaccination was only 80% effective. However, Dr Paskin felt that in his personal opinion and given the success thus far, limited horse activity would resume at the end of the year, “carefully and with appropriate controls”.

The question arose as to whether or not the virus was in Victoria and would emerge after the Cup? “To try and hide EI would be like trying to hide a bushfire. We have tested over 150 suspect properties in Victoria with a sophisticated process and they have all come back negative. Of course the risk for Victoria is still high, but I am confident there is no EI in Victoria at the moment”. Dr Paskin stressed that the next two weeks will be vital in keeping EI out and that people should not relax their bio-security. “It is impossible to stop everyone at the border, but we have cars and very effective surveillance cameras at all the crossings and that is working. We have investigated 216 horse float crossings and all but two have contained, alpacas, sheep and furniture. The two with horses will be prosecuted, so the system is working”.

Another question to arise was; if we do not vaccinate and again regain a clean and presumable naïve status, what will happen when there is another breach of quarantine and EI gets out again? Dr Paskin felt that the likelihood of anther outbreak in the next 20 years was unlikely. “A lot has happened in the last weeks and there will be a serious look at the quarantine service. It happened in South Africa in 2003 (first outbreak in 1986), but we have an exceptionally good network of vets in Australia and a cooperative and informed horse owning population. The Ausvetplan will be rewritten and we will have quicker recognition, diagnosis and control”. Dr Paskin mentioned early in the talk that one of the early problems was the where and how many affected, in essence to get the details of the disease in order to formulate a response. He felt that next time (God forbid) we would have a better plan.

Footnote.

It was interesting to note that during Dr Paskin’s talk it appeared that NSW and Queensland were each doing their own thing. “In NSW they are doing this and in Queensland they are doing that!” The colour zones are different in the two states and their approach to buffer zoning is different. How does that sit with and Ausvetplan and a National Management Group? Certainly to the layperson it looks confusing.