While the politicians are busy playing politics and handing out election promises, the DPI are busy projecting Epidemic curves to convince somebody, anybody, perhaps everybody, that the EI crisis is being brought under control. Does anybody believe them?
Quote from the DPI Victorian Situation Report dated Wednesday 7 November. (Can be found on the AHIC website)
“It should also be remembered that although there are currently 7693 IPs declared in the two States, that this figure is misleading. Practically, only the IPs reported in the last 21 days will still be harbouring active infection. The number of active IPs is therefore not 7693, but nearer 1830. At an average of 10 horses per property, this means that about 18,300 horses (out of a population of about 1 million) are currently infected. This means that about 1.8% of the total horse population are currently affected by EI.”Nice spin down and the graphs look impressive, but how about we look at the real facts. Given that they are not counting the number of horses actually affected, let’s work on their average of 10 horses per property. Number of IPs (reported to date) 7693 x 10 horses per property, makes a total of 76,930 horses that have been infected with EI to date. By the same calculation of a population of about 1 million, that makes 7.6% infected to date. (that have been reported).
Given the reported low mortality rate of 1% this means at least 769 horses so far have DIED from this disease! DEAD as a result of incompetent handling of this crisis! Not that anybody is recording the deaths, so we will never know if the 1% is accurate or if the figure is higher.
OK, so not all 76 thousand horses are still infective, but their calculation of ‘practically only IPs reported in the last 21 days’ is as big a load of garbage as everything else the Government has fed us.
Assuming that properties are reported the first or second day after clinical signs are observed, then the spin doctors should be calculating the ‘active infective’ properties from the date of the last horse on the property to show clinical signs, not the reporting date. Then, let’s add to that infective number by the fact that the virus can live on inanimate objects for varying lengths of time and it has been quoted in various places that the virus can survive up to 18 days in dirty water. How many properties would you find a source of dirty water? Stagnant creek beds, dams, water troughs, the list are endless, as are the number of properties that could still be harbouring the virus!
Lets then add the 100’s, probably thousands of mares that were moved into the ‘purple zone’ to allow for breeding. Many of which probably came from clean properties and entered infected properties (all in the name of the mighty $$). The unreported properties we will never know the true extend of them, so many have lost faith (or had none to begin with) in the DPI that thousands will never have been reported.
Yesterdays NMG announcement is just as big a joke, not only have they re-written the Ausvetplan to protect the racing industry at the expense of 80% of the horse industry, it appears they have now re-written the EAD agreement, and ‘capped limit’ actually now means ‘capped when we decide to give up’. Given that the Australian Racing Board is the only horse industry that is party to the Deed, exactly who in the industry are they seeking agreement with over this decision to go on indefinitely protecting only those that are deemed ‘high value’ and keep patting the rest on the head for co-operating with them? Its much like the pat on a head you would give a horse ~ just before you shoot it!
I don’t know about all the other peak bodies and their rules and regulations, but under the EFA Code of Conduct.
RULE NUMBER 1. In all equestrian sports the horse must be considered paramount.
RULE NUMBER 2. The well being of the horse shall be above the demands of breeders, trainers, riders, owners, dealers, organizer, sponsors or officials.
RULE NUMBER 3. All handling and veterinary treatment must ensure the health and welfare of the horse.
I could go on, but the point is clearly that under every ruling the horses’ welfare MUST be considered the highest priority. These rules are not based on who places what value on any one animal or how much those animals are worth to the Government coffers.
Denying people access to vaccine to protect their horses is like denying them access to basic care such as food and water.
The entire handling of this disaster is a complete disgrace, everybody knows that, and the battle between the Government and the Racing Industry will go on for months as to who relaxed what rules, and who had the most to gain. They are both as bad as each other and meanwhile thousands more horses will continue to fall victim to this disease.
Everyone is telling us that the reason the Racing Industry were able to get action is because they are such a well oiled machine, at the click of a mouse button they can produce the facts and figures that enable immediate decisions to be made. How then can the NMG be making such decisions based on the entire horse industry if they do not have all the facts at hand. I refer you all to the ‘Scenario cost analysis for Equine Influenza’ posted yesterday.
http://horsedealsflu.blogspot.com/2007/11/national-management-group-positive_07.html
“Reducing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions lowers the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.”
How can they make those decisions if they do not have all the facts?
Reducing movement restrictions has already proven to spread the disease further.
There are many more scandals to come out of how this entire crisis has been handled, many will never be made public.
We cannot rely on the Government to give us the facts, perhaps one of our industry liaison officers would be kind enough to give us some real facts, someone from the AHIC perhaps as they claim to be representing ALL horse owners interests.
Given the stringent controls over the use of the GM vaccine, these facts should be readily available at the click of a mouse button.
How many doses of the GM vaccine have been received in the country to date?
Of the number of vaccine that are reportedly underwritten, the number of which seem to change depending on who’s media release you read… What time frame (delivery dates) are expected for this vaccine to roll into the country? Answers in terms of doses and dates would be more useful than estimated number of horses that ‘could’ be vaccinated by February!
What quantities of vaccine have been allocated to non-infected states, all states other than NSW and Qld?
How much vaccine has already been used in non-infected states?
What quantities have been used in NSW & Qld, a break-up of doses used by the racing industry, buffer zones, and last but not least ‘high value horses’?
Given that the Government want us to believe that the containment strategy is working, how can any vaccine used outside the infected states of NSW & Qld be considered ‘in line with the Ausvetplan’ and part of an eradication strategy, when none of those horses were or could be in any immediate danger of contracting this disease?
Have the Govt already approved the Racing Industry’s announcement of their ‘National Vaccination Policy’ and mandatory vaccinating of all race horses?
At what point do the NMG now foresee re-evaluating the eradication vs endemic scenario?
a) After the Election
b) When we reach 10, 15, 20% of the horse population infected
c) When we reach 1000, 2000, 3000 deaths
d) When ‘x’ number of cases appear in other states
e) All of the above
f) When the racing industry has twisted the Governments arm harder
g) Or, has the industry agreed on a new capped $$ value, if so what is it?
When does the Welfare of our horses come into this decision??
These are not difficult questions, and the horse owners of this country deserve to know the answers.
Lynne
From the Disaster Zone up North
**Click on map to enlarge**
6 November PM: There are 2177 properties infected with equine influenza in Queensland, this is an increase of 19 since yesterday. It's important to maintain decontamination procedures and remain vigilant.
The second round of equine influenza vaccinations are being rolled out through New South Wales buffer zones this week.
The Victorian Department of Primary Industries says it is likely to be another two months before there is any normal movement of horses into Victoria from New South Wales zones free of equine influenza (EI).