National Management Group - Positive signs in equine influenza response

Positive signs in equine influenza response

The National Management Group (NMG) overseeing the national response to equine influenza has reassessed progress and believes there are positive signs control measures are working.

In considering the response to date, NMG re-confirmed a strategy of containment and eradication of the disease. Achievement of eradication continues to require strict biosecurity measures including adherence to movement controls where these are in place.

While the number of infected premises as expected has increased, NMG emphasised the effectiveness of the response in containing the disease to locations in Queensland and NSW since the end of August.

Vaccination buffers around areas of high disease concentration are proving highly effective and there are indications the disease is "burning out" reasonably quickly in these zones.

The restriction of the disease to limited places is allowing the freeing up of horse activities where this is consistent with the response's risk management principles and this in turn is allowing events such as the spring carnival in Victoria to proceed including the running of the Melbourne Cup yesterday.

Under industry/government agreed cost-sharing agreements for emergency animal disease responses including equine influenza, the control and eradication costs are capped at 1 per cent of the gross value of production (GVP) of that particular sector unless an alternative upper limit is agreed.

NMG noted that horse flu response costs had now exceeded $36 million, passing the previously agreed GVP limit. It agreed to continue the response and will hold further discussions this week to seek the agreement of all parties including horse industries to a revised upper limit.

In terms of an analysis of the response costs compared with the costs of living with the disease, NMG considered a Report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Report Summary attached) and accepted the current strategy to eradicate the disease remains beneficial in economic terms.

NMG also noted that the latest shipment of vaccine is progressively being rolled-out. The Australian Government has arrangements to underwrite up to 750,000 doses with current orders totalling 525,000 doses to be delivered progressively by February.

NMG discussed the preferred vaccine for equine influenza and agreed that the currently used live recombinant vaccine as approved for emergency use by OGTR, APVMA and AQIS, remains the preferred vaccine as it stimulates an earlier immune response than other vaccines that were considered.

In addition, 'ProteqFlu' allows for testing to distinguish between infected and vaccinated animals whereas use of alternative vaccines will complicate the ability to demonstrate freedom from the disease and potentially undermine the ability to move horses from infected to non-infected areas and for other purposes.

The priority for vaccine remains use in buffer zones as well as high risk horses in "red" and "purple" control zones.

Agriculture Ministers were briefed by NMG on the current state of play including response priorities, vaccine use, costs, and projections.

NMG is comprised of the Chief Executive Officers of the Commonwealth and State/Territory departments of agriculture/primary industries across Australia and also the heads of the peak bodies representing the horse industry. It is chaired by the Secretary of the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Dr Conall O'Connell.

Contacts: Australian Chief Veterinary Officer (A/g), Dr Bob Biddle (02)
Chief Executive, Australian Racing Board, Andrew Harding (0417) 043 233
President, Australian Horse Industry Council, Dr Barry Smyth (0417) 549 189
Chief Executive, Australian Harness Racing Council, Rod Pollock (03) 9867 8033




Scenario cost analysis for equine influenza

Following the outbreak of equine influenza (EI) in Australia, the Consultative Committee on Emergency Animal Disease (CCEAD) agreed to the establishment of a Working Group to examine the relative costs of managing the outbreak of EI in Australia. The Working Group commenced its work on the 3rd of September 2007.

The Working Group examined the relative costs of managing EI in Australia under two scenarios:

o An endemic scenario, a program of widespread and ongoing annual vaccination; and

o An eradication scenario, where the disease is contained and eradicated in New South Wales and Queensland, through movement restrictions on horses and horse related material over the period of eradication.

The analysis of these scenarios is undertaken for a 20 year time frame and under varying probabilities of successfully eradicating EI, and EI reoccurring in Australia.

The estimates produced by the Working Group are for a base case where the decision maker was comparing the two scenarios in late October 2007. A decision made at that time to continue on with the eradication program would have a lower cost than a decision to abandon containment and switch to an endemic scenario with vaccination, if the containment program was to remain in place up to early March 2008.

This conclusion was based on an assumption that the decision maker was confident that the eradication of EI would be successful by early March 2008. Under an alternative assumption of less certainty regarding eradication, the cost of the eradication scenario increases, reducing its cost advantage compared with the endemic scenario.

Sensitivity analyses were also undertaken from the perspective of making a decision in late October 2007. The results indicate that:

o Reducing the probability of future outbreaks of EI in the eradication scenario reduces the relative cost advantage of the eradication scenario in relation to the endemic scenario.

o Increasing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions increases the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.

o Reducing the income loss in the equine industry due to movement restrictions lowers the cost of the eradication scenario compared with the endemic scenario.

o A lower cost of vaccines in the endemic scenario increases the cost advantage of the endemic scenario in relation to the eradication scenario

Bio security at Melbourne Spring Carnival

I have been watching the spring racing carnival on TV over the last few weeks and have noticed the wall that keeps the crowd away from the horses. Why do they even bother with it when a TV host lent over it to speak to a trainer and was centimetres away from his face with a microphone . I think the wall needs to be alot further away because EI is so contagious.
Victoria is sure to get it sooner or later if they don't have it already.

MB (purple zone) Hunter

Thoughts on EI

What to make of the EI epidemic and the total upheavel of our way of life and our businesses....As a long time full time proffessional in the business the abrupt end of free movement in what was possibly the least restrictive of all environments came as a very rude shock.
whether we be professionals, pony clubbers,dressage competitors,showjumpers,racehorse and trotting trainers,arab endurance riders, eventers, rodeo rider, hack riders,polo or polocrosse or just kids who like to ride up the road we all have been affected and halted in our tracks.
This has caused unfortunate division and a little paronoia amongst some people but we should not rush to judgement (or become paronoid ourselves).
The people whose livehood has been temporally and in some cases perhaps permantly ruined certainly have a point of view that will be different from the one and two horse owners....the horse transporters, farriers, coaches, saddlery stores and on and on cannot afford to wait the 3 months, six months or even twelve months that the authorities would like us to sit until the very infectious airborne virus burns itself out (if indeed it does).
Certainly the racehorse and trotting fraternity cannot wait that long and although it appears tempting to bash the uneven handed treatment that they seem to be receiving the other (less vocal) proffessional and amateur horse sports perhaps need to consider that without a powerful racing industry our smaller less influential voices would not be even rating on the register of concern with the responsible bodies.
The idea of eliminating EI from Australia seems a noble but perhaps forlorn hope although I believe the vast majority have tried very hard and followed very good bio.security. This has done very little to stop the spread of EI in the red zones and as someone who has just attended horse sales in Germany I can see how easily EI could be introduced or reintroduced inadvertantly.
I believe that all organisations are working towards freeing up movement restrictions and getting all horse industries moving through vaccination programs etc. This program must be pushed ahead and all resources aimed at this target. Staying home and not moving your horse will not guarantee safety.. The disease itself can be managed (like a lot of horse diseases) and we have had mares foal successfully who had EI only a few days before foaling.
If countries such as Germany , England and France cannot eliminate EI and use vaccination as their chief control method how could we with our vast areas and feral populations hope to do better or differently.
I believe the horse owners with only one or a few horses should consider joining with the professional and semi professional groups in advocating a vaccine based solution but understand that this is their choice ..I for one would like the choice to be able to vaccinate so this does not happen again. If this is not proceeded with at great speed then the horse industry as we knew it may take years to recover (if the recovery happens at all).
EI has been a huge blow on top of years of rising feed prices caused by an extended drought and the danger is that the better or bigger operators will just find something else to do with their time. The whole horse scene in Australia will be the worse for this scenario.

Peter Jenkyn

How do we make contact?

Does anyone know how to get in contact with the Qld Performance and Pleasure horse organization

Do they have an e-mail address? Or phone number?

Phil

Minister was blind to Science

A WAR of words has broken out between the Australian Racing Board and the
Federal Government over Australia's quarantine standards and their role in
the outbreak of equine influenza.
See the full article in the Sydney Morning Herald at:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/horseracing/truss-was-blind-to-science-says-board/2007/11/05/1194117959658.html
The article continues: “The board accused the former minister for
agriculture, Warren Truss, of twice fobbing off its concerns that relaxed
quarantine standards could lead to an outbreak of the disease, and even
issuing a written guarantee that "it could not happen".
Mr Truss rejected the criticism and accused the board of being
hypocritical about quarantine, revealing that it had asked him in 2001 to
overturn a ban on importing horses from Britain during an outbreak of foot
and mouth disease,”

The example used by Mr Truss is further evidence that Mr Truss or his
department did not understand the science. Horses are not affected by
Foot and Mouth Disease and the 2001 ban was taken at a political level to
appease concern expressed by people who did not understand that horses did
not have cloven hooves.
Mr Truss was advised of this error by Biosecurity Australia, AQIS, the
Australian Veterinary Association, various DPI’s and the Australian Horse
Industry Council. Undeterred, Mt Truss maintained the ban for over a
year. Numerous horses were unable to move to Australia, including
breeding horses, competition horses etc.
In June 2001 the TB breeders approached Mr Truss and got an exemption to
allow importation of the shuttle stallions. Then the racing authorities
got exemption for racehorses to compete in the 2001 Melbourne Cup. The
general ban on horse imports continued at considerable cost to their
owners.
This episode should have been a warning what would happen if we did get
Equine Influenza. Politicians ignore scientific advice and then bow to
pressure from powerful racing and breeding interests at the expense of the
ordinary horse owner.

Rod Hoare
AHIC

Race of the Century

The Melbourne Cup might be the nation's premier horse race but Equine Influenza was shaping up as the race of the century, the Queensland Performance & Pleasure Horse Industry group said today.

The highly contagious disease, which showed outstanding form when it arrived from Japan in late August, had already shut the industry down for 72 days. EI was now the "virus that stopped an industry", affecting racing, harness, performance and pleasure horses alike.

"When history reflects on 2007 the race that everyone will be talking about unfortunately will not be the historic race on the first Tuesday of November," said Peter Toft, QPPHI chair.

"But the race that every horse owner in Queensland and New South Wales is currently competing in - the race to eradicate and contain EI."
The exotic import - previously unbeatable overseas - had not discriminated against horses when taking to the fields, east and west of the Great Dividing Range. Unlike the $5.1 million Melbourne Cup, reserved for racing thoroughbreds over three years old, EI affected all breeds, disciplines, services providers and horse owners alike.

Mr Toft said it was unacceptable to allow future generations of horses and horse enthusiasts to carry the burden of the disease without engaging and exhausting all eradication options.

He said the fight to contain and eradicate EI would last longer than a 3200 metre-gallop around Flemington.

"We have come a long way in controlling the disease and short odds are now on the successful eradication," Mr Toft said. "But all horse owners must remain vigilant if we are to pip EI at the winning post."

The call for strict biosecurity measures comes as the QPPHI this week lines up the first batch of 26,000 non-racing horses for vaccination. The vaccinations are in-line with the AUSVET plan which supports selective vaccination, rather than en mass, to contain and eradicate EI in the red zones. Horse owners are encouraged to apply online for the live, modified canary pox vaccine at the Department of Primary Industries & Fisheries website: http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/

A new, user-friendly vaccination application form is available on the site, as well as applications for movement permits and details on decontamination and disease containment.

Newspaper column from the DPI&F Chief Veterinary Officer Dr Ron Glanville

DPI&F veterinary specialists are increasingly confident that the spread of Equine Influenza in Queensland has peaked and is now trending down.
The graph below shows the spread of the infection based on the date of onset of clinical signs of EI.

The dotted line shows the total number of infected premises (IPs) reported on a ‘5 day rolling average’.

The peak number of infected premises was around 1 October 2007. Since then there has been a consistent decline in the number of premises reporting clinical signs.

But the infection rate can still accelerate and this is no time for complacency.

Read more.